Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots prediction
Win probabilities, projected score and this season's numbers, by SportHoot.
Buffalo Bills visit New England Patriots on Sun, Dec 6, 09:25 PM UTC. The model's forecast is below, with both teams' season side by side.
The probabilities are model estimates and change as new information arrives.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots prediction
NFL ·
Buffalo Bills 53% to win
- New England Patriots win46%
- Buffalo Bills win53%
A tie is under 1%.
Projected score: New England Patriots 25.8, Buffalo Bills 26.7
Forecast updated 3 Nov, 11:01 UTC · These are model estimates, not certainties: either team can win.
Game preview
Little separates them: the model has New England Patriots at 46% and Buffalo Bills at 53%. The projected score is New England Patriots 25.8, Buffalo Bills 26.7. Over 45.5 total points is at 68%. Every figure is an estimate, not a certainty: injuries, weather and team news can still change the picture.
New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills this season
2026 season so far; long-run rates since 2000.
| Stat | New England Patriots | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-3 | 6-1 |
| Points scored per game | 23.0 | 33.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.3 | 25.9 |
| Games won since 2000 | 322 of 475 | 224 of 443 |
| Games over 45.5 points since 2000 | 225 of 475 | 188 of 443 |
| Scored over 20.5 since 2000 | 317 of 475 | 242 of 443 |
Meetings this season
- Week 4: Buffalo Bills 26-29 New England Patriots
Total points and team points
The model's estimates for this game's point lines.
| Line | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Over 30.5 total points | 93% |
| Over 42.5 total points | 76% |
| Over 45.5 total points | 68% |
| Over 48.5 total points | 59% |
| Over 50.5 total points | 52% |
| New England Patriots over 14.5 points | 87% |
| New England Patriots over 20.5 points | 68% |
| New England Patriots over 24.5 points | 52% |
| New England Patriots over 27.5 points | 40% |
| New England Patriots over 30.5 points | 28% |
| Buffalo Bills over 14.5 points | 89% |
| Buffalo Bills over 20.5 points | 71% |
| Buffalo Bills over 24.5 points | 55% |
| Buffalo Bills over 27.5 points | 43% |
| Buffalo Bills over 30.5 points | 31% |
Questions
Who is favoured, Buffalo Bills or New England Patriots?
The model gives Buffalo Bills a 53% chance of winning and New England Patriots 46%. These are estimates, not certainties.
What is the projected score for Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots?
The model projects New England Patriots 25.8, Buffalo Bills 26.7.
How is this prediction made?
It is a model estimate from predictapp, built from both teams' games this season and in past seasons. This one was made 3 Nov, 11:01 UTC and is updated as new information arrives.
Is this a tip?
No. It is an estimate of how likely each result is, not advice to bet. What you do with it is your decision.
Have Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots played this season?
Yes, 1 times: Week 4: Buffalo Bills 26-29 New England Patriots.
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