Buffalo Bills: predictions, props and stats
The numbers behind the Bills
The Bills are 6-1 through week 8, scoring 33.3 points a game and allowing 25.9.
Every table on this page is a result from games already played, not a prediction.
Next game
Results and scoring
This season, through week 8
6-1, with 33.3 points scored and 25.9 allowed a game.
| Wk | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | vsRavens | 36-10 | Won |
| 6 | @Raiders | 33-30 | Won |
| 5 | @Rams | 37-34 OT | Won |
| 4 | vsPatriots | 26-29 | Lost |
| 3 | vsChargers | 24-16 | Won |
| 2 | vsLions | 41-31 | Won |
| 1 | @Texans | 36-31 | Won |
| Stat | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored a game | 33.3 | 22.4 |
| Points allowed a game | 25.9 | 21.9 |
| Average margin | +7.4 | +0.5 |
| Went to overtime | 14%1 of 7 | 6%26 of 443 |
Bills against the spread
Since 2000 the Bills have won by more than 3.5 points in 175 of 443 games, with an average margin of +0.5.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Won by 8 or more (covers -7.5) | 43%3 of 7 | 30%132 of 443 |
| Won by 4 or more (covers -3.5) | 57%4 of 7 | 40%175 of 443 |
| Won, or lost by 3 or fewer (covers +3.5) | 100%7 of 7 | 64%283 of 443 |
| Won, or lost by 7 or fewer (covers +7.5) | 100%7 of 7 | 75%332 of 443 |
Game totals in Bills games
Since 2000, Bills games have gone over 45.5 points in 188 of 443.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 30.5 points | 100%7 of 7 | 83%366 of 443 |
| Over 42.5 points | 86%6 of 7 | 53%237 of 443 |
| Over 45.5 points | 86%6 of 7 | 42%188 of 443 |
| Over 48.5 points | 71%5 of 7 | 36%161 of 443 |
| Over 50.5 points | 71%5 of 7 | 33%145 of 443 |
Bills wins, home and away
Since 2000 the Bills have won 224 of 443 games: 133 of 224 at home and 91 of 219 away.
| Stat | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| All games | 86%6 of 7 | 51%224 of 443 |
| At home | 75%3 of 4 | 59%133 of 224 |
| Away | 100%3 of 3 | 42%91 of 219 |
Bills points against team totals
Since 2000 the Bills have scored more than 20.5 points in 242 of 443 games.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored over 14.5 | 100%7 of 7 | 74%329 of 443 |
| Scored over 20.5 | 100%7 of 7 | 55%242 of 443 |
| Scored over 24.5 | 86%6 of 7 | 40%175 of 443 |
| Scored over 27.5 | 71%5 of 7 | 31%137 of 443 |
| Scored over 30.5 | 71%5 of 7 | 25%111 of 443 |
Bills passing
This season, through week 8
| Player | G | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 7 | 135 | 209 | 1793 | 11 | 5 |
Bills rushing
This season, through week 8
| James Cook | RB | 7 | 138 | 707 | 7 | 74% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | QB | 7 | 47 | 278 | 9 | 15% |
| Ray Davis | RB | 7 | 11 | 42 | 0 | 5% |
| Ty Johnson | RB | 5 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 4% |
| DJ Moore | WR | 5 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 2% |
| Dawson Knox | TE | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1% |
| Frank Gore Jr. | RB | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% |
Bills receiving
This season, through week 8
| Khalil Shakir | WR | 38 | 27 | 344 | 1 | 19% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 36 | 27 | 401 | 2 | 18% |
| Keon Coleman | WR | 28 | 20 | 287 | 3 | 14% |
| DJ Moore | WR | 27 | 16 | 260 | 2 | 19% |
| James Cook | RB | 17 | 12 | 110 | 0 | 8% |
| Ty Johnson | RB | 15 | 15 | 174 | 0 | 12% |
| Josh Palmer | WR | 13 | 4 | 117 | 2 | 7% |
| Dawson Knox | TE | 12 | 9 | 42 | 1 | 7% |
Who scores for the Bills
This season, through week 8
| Josh Allen | QB | 9 | 0 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | RB | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Josh Palmer | WR | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| DJ Moore | WR | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Dawson Knox | TE | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Bills fantasy points
This season, through week 8
| Josh Allen | QB | 7 | 188.6 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.8 | 41.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | RB | 7 | 131.7 | 18.8 | 18.0 | 17.1 | 24.3 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 7 | 79.1 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 22.5 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | 7 | 66.7 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 23.6 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | 7 | 65.4 | 9.3 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 13.4 |
| DJ Moore | WR | 5 | 52.9 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 21.0 |
| Ty Johnson | RB | 5 | 33.4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 11.2 |
| Josh Palmer | WR | 6 | 27.7 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 11.3 |
| Dawson Knox | TE | 7 | 19.2 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 8.5 |
| Ray Davis | RB | 7 | 11.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 4.3 |
| Jackson Hawes | TE | 7 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.7 |
| Frank Gore Jr. | RB | 2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
What the Bills defense allows
A game, over its last 24 games. Rank 1 is the defense that allows the most.
How close the model's projections have been
Tested on games the model had not seen: what it projected next to what happened, for players projected for a real role. The last column is how often the result landed inside the projected 80% range.
| Market | This season | Player games | Projected | Actual | Inside the 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving yards, WR | 2021 to 2025 | 4,979 | 55.8 | 55.3 | 79.2% |
| Rushing yards, RB | 2021 to 2025 | 3,656 | 52.7 | 54.1 | 81.2% |
| Passing yards, QB | 2022 to 2025 | 2,173 | 221.1 | 223.7 | 81.2% |
| Receiving yards, TE | 2021 to 2025 | 1,179 | 47.6 | 46.7 | 82.1% |
Questions about the Bills
How often do Bills games go over 45.5 points?
In 188 of 443 games since 2000 (42%). Every total from 30.5 to 50.5 is counted in the total section of this page.
How often do the Bills win at home?
They have won 133 of 224 home games since 2000 (59%), and 91 of 219 away.
How often do the Bills score more than 20.5 points?
In 242 of 443 games since 2000 (55%).
Are the numbers on this page predictions?
No. They are results from games already played, and each section says which games it counts.
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