New England Patriots: predictions, props and stats
The numbers behind the Patriots
The Patriots are 5-3 through week 8, scoring 23.0 points a game and allowing 20.3.
Every table on this page is a result from games already played, not a prediction.
Next game
Results and scoring
This season, through week 8
5-3, with 23.0 points scored and 20.3 allowed a game.
| Wk | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | @Dolphins | 24-19 | Won |
| 7 | @Bears | 24-30 | Lost |
| 6 | vsJets | 26-19 | Won |
| 5 | vsRaiders | 45-17 | Won |
| 4 | @Bills | 29-26 | Won |
| 3 | @Jaguars | 6-35 | Lost |
| 2 | vsSteelers | 20-3 | Won |
| 1 | @Seahawks | 10-13 | Lost |
| Stat | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored a game | 23.0 | 25.8 |
| Points allowed a game | 20.3 | 19.3 |
| Average margin | +2.8 | +6.5 |
| Went to overtime | 0%0 of 8 | 5%23 of 475 |
Patriots against the spread
Since 2000 the Patriots have won by more than 3.5 points in 265 of 475 games, with an average margin of +6.5.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Won by 8 or more (covers -7.5) | 25%2 of 8 | 41%197 of 475 |
| Won by 4 or more (covers -3.5) | 50%4 of 8 | 56%265 of 475 |
| Won, or lost by 3 or fewer (covers +3.5) | 75%6 of 8 | 75%355 of 475 |
| Won, or lost by 7 or fewer (covers +7.5) | 88%7 of 8 | 85%404 of 475 |
Game totals in Patriots games
Since 2000, Patriots games have gone over 45.5 points in 225 of 475.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 30.5 points | 75%6 of 8 | 85%405 of 475 |
| Over 42.5 points | 63%5 of 8 | 59%280 of 475 |
| Over 45.5 points | 38%3 of 8 | 47%225 of 475 |
| Over 48.5 points | 38%3 of 8 | 39%183 of 475 |
| Over 50.5 points | 38%3 of 8 | 35%165 of 475 |
Patriots wins, home and away
Since 2000 the Patriots have won 322 of 475 games: 179 of 246 at home and 143 of 229 away.
| Stat | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| All games | 63%5 of 8 | 68%322 of 475 |
| At home | 100%3 of 3 | 73%179 of 246 |
| Away | 40%2 of 5 | 62%143 of 229 |
Patriots points against team totals
Since 2000 the Patriots have scored more than 20.5 points in 317 of 475 games.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored over 14.5 | 75%6 of 8 | 85%403 of 475 |
| Scored over 20.5 | 63%5 of 8 | 67%317 of 475 |
| Scored over 24.5 | 38%3 of 8 | 51%240 of 475 |
| Scored over 27.5 | 25%2 of 8 | 41%194 of 475 |
| Scored over 30.5 | 13%1 of 8 | 32%152 of 475 |
Patriots passing
This season, through week 8
| Drake Maye | 8 | 157 | 234 | 1983 | 15 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy DeVito | 1 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
| Efton Chism III | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots rushing
This season, through week 8
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 8 | 96 | 367 | 2 | 47% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 6 | 52 | 203 | 1 | 35% |
| Corey Kiner | RB | 8 | 42 | 189 | 0 | 21% |
| Drake Maye | QB | 8 | 35 | 228 | 3 | 5% |
| Lan Larison | RB | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 3% |
| Efton Chism III | WR | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1% |
| Tommy DeVito | QB | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% |
Patriots receiving
This season, through week 8
| DeMario Douglas | WR | 37 | 26 | 332 | 4 | 16% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | TE | 34 | 29 | 326 | 2 | 15% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 28 | 23 | 212 | 1 | 12% |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | 24 | 14 | 261 | 3 | 13% |
| A.J. Brown | WR | 20 | 9 | 101 | 0 | 22% |
| Mack Hollins | WR | 20 | 15 | 209 | 0 | 17% |
| Efton Chism III | WR | 20 | 15 | 151 | 1 | 11% |
| Eli Raridon | TE | 20 | 13 | 173 | 2 | 11% |
Who scores for the Patriots
This season, through week 8
| DeMario Douglas | WR | 0 | 4 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | WR | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Drake Maye | QB | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Kyle Williams | WR | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Eli Raridon | TE | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Patriots fantasy points
This season, through week 8
| Drake Maye | QB | 8 | 162.1 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 39.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 8 | 98.9 | 12.4 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 22.5 |
| DeMario Douglas | WR | 8 | 81.2 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 22.5 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 8 | 73.6 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 14.8 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | 6 | 58.1 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 23.8 |
| Eli Raridon | TE | 7 | 42.3 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 14.6 |
| Kyle Williams | WR | 8 | 38.0 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 18.1 |
| Mack Hollins | WR | 4 | 35.9 | 9.0 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 14.7 |
| Efton Chism III | WR | 7 | 34.9 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 12.2 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 6 | 32.6 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 13.6 |
| Corey Kiner | RB | 8 | 20.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 5.7 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | 3 | 19.1 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 7.8 |
| Lan Larison | RB | 2 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 2.9 |
| Reggie Gilliam | RB | 4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
| Tommy DeVito | QB | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
What the Patriots defense allows
A game, over its last 25 games. Rank 1 is the defense that allows the most.
How close the model's projections have been
Tested on games the model had not seen: what it projected next to what happened, for players projected for a real role. The last column is how often the result landed inside the projected 80% range.
| Market | This season | Player games | Projected | Actual | Inside the 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving yards, WR | 2021 to 2025 | 4,979 | 55.8 | 55.3 | 79.2% |
| Rushing yards, RB | 2021 to 2025 | 3,656 | 52.7 | 54.1 | 81.2% |
| Passing yards, QB | 2022 to 2025 | 2,173 | 221.1 | 223.7 | 81.2% |
| Receiving yards, TE | 2021 to 2025 | 1,179 | 47.6 | 46.7 | 82.1% |
Questions about the Patriots
How often do Patriots games go over 45.5 points?
In 225 of 475 games since 2000 (47%). Every total from 30.5 to 50.5 is counted in the total section of this page.
How often do the Patriots win at home?
They have won 179 of 246 home games since 2000 (73%), and 143 of 229 away.
How often do the Patriots score more than 20.5 points?
In 317 of 475 games since 2000 (67%).
Are the numbers on this page predictions?
No. They are results from games already played, and each section says which games it counts.
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