NFL player props: the stats behind every line
The numbers behind NFL player props
Every player, every common line, counted game by game through week 8.
Receiving yards
This season, through week 8
| Player | G | Total | A game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 7 | 867 | 123.9 |
| Tee Higgins | 7 | 726 | 103.7 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 8 | 709 | 88.6 |
| Christian Watson | 8 | 708 | 88.5 |
| Chris Olave | 7 | 636 | 90.9 |
Rushing yards
This season, through week 8
| Player | G | Total | A game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 8 | 780 | 97.5 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 7 | 773 | 110.4 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 7 | 770 | 110 |
| Bucky Irving | 8 | 728 | 91 |
| James Cook | 7 | 707 | 101 |
Passing yards
This season, through week 8
| Player | G | Total | A game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 8 | 2246 | 280.8 |
| Matthew Stafford | 8 | 2146 | 268.3 |
| Kirk Cousins | 8 | 2124 | 265.5 |
| Joe Burrow | 7 | 2115 | 302.1 |
| Dak Prescott | 8 | 2046 | 255.8 |
Every player props table
Defense against each position
How close the model's projections have been
Tested on games the model had not seen: what it projected next to what happened, for players projected for a real role. The last column is how often the result landed inside the projected 80% range.
| Market | This season | Player games | Projected | Actual | Inside the 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving yards, WR | 2021 to 2025 | 4,979 | 55.8 | 55.3 | 79.2% |
| Rushing yards, RB | 2021 to 2025 | 3,656 | 52.7 | 54.1 | 81.2% |
| Passing yards, QB | 2022 to 2025 | 2,173 | 221.1 | 223.7 | 81.2% |
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