New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs prediction
Win probabilities, projected score and this season's numbers, by SportHoot.
New England Patriots visit Kansas City Chiefs on Tue, Dec 22, 01:15 AM UTC. The model's forecast is below, with both teams' season side by side.
The probabilities are model estimates and change as new information arrives.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs prediction
NFL ·
Kansas City Chiefs 57% to win
- Kansas City Chiefs win57%
- New England Patriots win43%
A tie is under 1%.
Projected score: Kansas City Chiefs 25.1, New England Patriots 22.8
Forecast updated 3 Nov, 11:01 UTC · These are model estimates, not certainties: either team can win.
Game preview
Kansas City Chiefs have the edge at 57%, but New England Patriots are at 43%, so this is far from one-sided. The projected score is Kansas City Chiefs 25.1, New England Patriots 22.8. Over 45.5 total points is at 57%. Every figure is an estimate, not a certainty: injuries, weather and team news can still change the picture.
Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots this season
2026 season so far; long-run rates since 2000.
| Stat | Kansas City Chiefs | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-2 | 5-3 |
| Points scored per game | 23.9 | 23.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.7 | 20.3 |
| Games won since 2000 | 261 of 457 | 322 of 475 |
| Games over 45.5 points since 2000 | 212 of 457 | 225 of 475 |
| Scored over 20.5 since 2000 | 280 of 457 | 317 of 475 |
Total points and team points
The model's estimates for this game's point lines.
| Line | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Over 30.5 total points | 90% |
| Over 42.5 total points | 66% |
| Over 45.5 total points | 57% |
| Over 48.5 total points | 47% |
| Over 50.5 total points | 41% |
| Kansas City Chiefs over 14.5 points | 85% |
| Kansas City Chiefs over 20.5 points | 65% |
| Kansas City Chiefs over 24.5 points | 50% |
| Kansas City Chiefs over 27.5 points | 38% |
| Kansas City Chiefs over 30.5 points | 26% |
| New England Patriots over 14.5 points | 79% |
| New England Patriots over 20.5 points | 56% |
| New England Patriots over 24.5 points | 39% |
| New England Patriots over 27.5 points | 28% |
| New England Patriots over 30.5 points | 19% |
Questions
Who is favoured, New England Patriots or Kansas City Chiefs?
The model gives Kansas City Chiefs a 57% chance of winning and New England Patriots 43%. These are estimates, not certainties.
What is the projected score for New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs?
The model projects Kansas City Chiefs 25.1, New England Patriots 22.8.
How is this prediction made?
It is a model estimate from predictapp, built from both teams' games this season and in past seasons. This one was made 3 Nov, 11:01 UTC and is updated as new information arrives.
Is this a tip?
No. It is an estimate of how likely each result is, not advice to bet. What you do with it is your decision.
Have Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots played this season?
Not yet this season.
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