Kansas City Chiefs: predictions, props and stats
The numbers behind the Chiefs
The Chiefs are 5-2 through week 8, scoring 23.9 points a game and allowing 18.7.
Every table on this page is a result from games already played, not a prediction.
Next game
Results and scoring
This season, through week 8
5-2, with 23.9 points scored and 18.7 allowed a game.
| Wk | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | @Broncos | 24-28 | Lost |
| 7 | @Seahawks | 3-20 | Lost |
| 6 | vsChargers | 22-6 | Won |
| 4 | @Raiders | 30-27 | Won |
| 3 | @Dolphins | 24-10 | Won |
| 2 | vsColts | 33-30 OT | Won |
| 1 | vsBroncos | 31-10 | Won |
| Stat | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored a game | 23.9 | 24 |
| Points allowed a game | 18.7 | 21.7 |
| Average margin | +5.1 | +2.3 |
| Went to overtime | 14%1 of 7 | 7%33 of 457 |
Chiefs against the spread
Since 2000 the Chiefs have won by more than 3.5 points in 206 of 457 games, with an average margin of +2.3.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Won by 8 or more (covers -7.5) | 43%3 of 7 | 30%139 of 457 |
| Won by 4 or more (covers -3.5) | 43%3 of 7 | 45%206 of 457 |
| Won, or lost by 3 or fewer (covers +3.5) | 71%5 of 7 | 70%319 of 457 |
| Won, or lost by 7 or fewer (covers +7.5) | 86%6 of 7 | 81%369 of 457 |
Game totals in Chiefs games
Since 2000, Chiefs games have gone over 45.5 points in 212 of 457.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 30.5 points | 71%5 of 7 | 83%381 of 457 |
| Over 42.5 points | 43%3 of 7 | 56%257 of 457 |
| Over 45.5 points | 43%3 of 7 | 46%212 of 457 |
| Over 48.5 points | 43%3 of 7 | 39%177 of 457 |
| Over 50.5 points | 43%3 of 7 | 36%165 of 457 |
Chiefs wins, home and away
Since 2000 the Chiefs have won 261 of 457 games: 150 of 234 at home and 111 of 223 away.
| Stat | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| All games | 71%5 of 7 | 57%261 of 457 |
| At home | 100%3 of 3 | 64%150 of 234 |
| Away | 50%2 of 4 | 50%111 of 223 |
Chiefs points against team totals
Since 2000 the Chiefs have scored more than 20.5 points in 280 of 457 games.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored over 14.5 | 86%6 of 7 | 79%363 of 457 |
| Scored over 20.5 | 86%6 of 7 | 61%280 of 457 |
| Scored over 24.5 | 43%3 of 7 | 47%215 of 457 |
| Scored over 27.5 | 43%3 of 7 | 37%167 of 457 |
| Scored over 30.5 | 29%2 of 7 | 27%122 of 457 |
Chiefs passing
This season, through week 8
| Player | G | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 154 | 233 | 1795 | 12 | 4 |
Chiefs rushing
This season, through week 8
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | 7 | 141 | 770 | 6 | 86% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmett Johnson | RB | 7 | 20 | 77 | 0 | 11% |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 7 | 15 | 85 | 1 | 1% |
Chiefs receiving
This season, through week 8
| Travis Kelce | TE | 42 | 29 | 410 | 2 | 19% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy | WR | 41 | 27 | 230 | 1 | 19% |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | 33 | 22 | 131 | 2 | 15% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 25 | 20 | 243 | 2 | 16% |
| Noah Gray | TE | 16 | 14 | 173 | 1 | 8% |
| Emmett Johnson | RB | 16 | 14 | 237 | 1 | 7% |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR | 15 | 11 | 219 | 2 | 13% |
| Jalen Royals | WR | 12 | 6 | 45 | 1 | 6% |
Who scores for the Chiefs
This season, through week 8
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | 6 | 2 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | TE | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Noah Gray | TE | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jalen Royals | WR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Chiefs fantasy points
This season, through week 8
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | 7 | 160.1 | 22.9 | 21.3 | 19.7 | 34.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 7 | 126.3 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 29.0 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | 7 | 82.0 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 25.1 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 5 | 56.3 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 18.3 |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | 7 | 56.0 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 14.3 |
| Emmett Johnson | RB | 7 | 51.4 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 25.3 |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR | 4 | 44.9 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 28.1 |
| Noah Gray | TE | 7 | 37.3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 9.5 |
| Jalen Royals | WR | 7 | 16.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 8.6 |
| Cyrus Allen | WR | 7 | 11.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 4.7 |
| Andrew Armstrong | WR | 3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.3 |
| Jake Briningstool | TE | 7 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.9 |
| Justin Watson | WR | 2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| Brashard Smith | RB | 5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
What the Chiefs defense allows
A game, over its last 24 games. Rank 1 is the defense that allows the most.
How close the model's projections have been
Tested on games the model had not seen: what it projected next to what happened, for players projected for a real role. The last column is how often the result landed inside the projected 80% range.
| Market | This season | Player games | Projected | Actual | Inside the 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving yards, WR | 2021 to 2025 | 4,979 | 55.8 | 55.3 | 79.2% |
| Rushing yards, RB | 2021 to 2025 | 3,656 | 52.7 | 54.1 | 81.2% |
| Passing yards, QB | 2022 to 2025 | 2,173 | 221.1 | 223.7 | 81.2% |
| Receiving yards, TE | 2021 to 2025 | 1,179 | 47.6 | 46.7 | 82.1% |
Questions about the Chiefs
How often do Chiefs games go over 45.5 points?
In 212 of 457 games since 2000 (46%). Every total from 30.5 to 50.5 is counted in the total section of this page.
How often do the Chiefs win at home?
They have won 150 of 234 home games since 2000 (64%), and 111 of 223 away.
How often do the Chiefs score more than 20.5 points?
In 280 of 457 games since 2000 (61%).
Are the numbers on this page predictions?
No. They are results from games already played, and each section says which games it counts.
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