Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots prediction
Win probabilities, projected score and this season's numbers, by SportHoot.
Miami Dolphins visit New England Patriots on Sun, Jan 10, 06:00 PM UTC. The model's forecast is below, with both teams' season side by side.
The probabilities are model estimates and change as new information arrives.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots prediction
NFL ·
New England Patriots 79% to win
- New England Patriots win79%
- Miami Dolphins win21%
A tie is under 1%.
Projected score: New England Patriots 27.3, Miami Dolphins 17
Forecast updated 2 Nov, 11:01 UTC · These are model estimates, not certainties: either team can win.
Game preview
New England Patriots go in as clear favourites: the model gives them a 79% chance of winning, with Miami Dolphins at 21%. The projected score is New England Patriots 27.3, Miami Dolphins 17. Over 45.5 total points is at 50%. Every figure is an estimate, not a certainty: injuries, weather and team news can still change the picture.
New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins this season
2026 season so far; long-run rates since 2000.
| Stat | New England Patriots | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-3 | 1-6 |
| Points scored per game | 23.0 | 16.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.3 | 25.9 |
| Games won since 2000 | 322 of 475 | 205 of 435 |
| Games over 45.5 points since 2000 | 225 of 475 | 163 of 435 |
| Scored over 20.5 since 2000 | 317 of 475 | 212 of 435 |
Meetings this season
- Week 8: Miami Dolphins 19-24 New England Patriots
Total points and team points
The model's estimates for this game's point lines.
| Line | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Over 30.5 total points | 87% |
| Over 42.5 total points | 59% |
| Over 45.5 total points | 50% |
| Over 48.5 total points | 40% |
| Over 50.5 total points | 34% |
| New England Patriots over 14.5 points | 90% |
| New England Patriots over 20.5 points | 74% |
| New England Patriots over 24.5 points | 59% |
| New England Patriots over 27.5 points | 47% |
| New England Patriots over 30.5 points | 34% |
| Miami Dolphins over 14.5 points | 57% |
| Miami Dolphins over 20.5 points | 32% |
| Miami Dolphins over 24.5 points | 20% |
| Miami Dolphins over 27.5 points | 12% |
| Miami Dolphins over 30.5 points | 8% |
Questions
Who is favoured, Miami Dolphins or New England Patriots?
The model gives New England Patriots a 79% chance of winning and Miami Dolphins 21%. These are estimates, not certainties.
What is the projected score for Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots?
The model projects New England Patriots 27.3, Miami Dolphins 17.
How is this prediction made?
It is a model estimate from predictapp, built from both teams' games this season and in past seasons. This one was made 2 Nov, 11:01 UTC and is updated as new information arrives.
Is this a tip?
No. It is an estimate of how likely each result is, not advice to bet. What you do with it is your decision.
Have Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots played this season?
Yes, 1 times: Week 8: Miami Dolphins 19-24 New England Patriots.
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