Toluca vs Monterrey: prediction and head-to-head
The numbers behind Toluca vs Monterrey
Toluca and Monterrey have met 20 times on record: Toluca won 8, Monterrey won 8 and 4 were drawn.
The tables on this page are past results; the forecast above is a model estimate.
Toluca vs Monterrey prediction
Liga MX ·
Toluca 45% to win
- Toluca win45%
- Draw24%
- Monterrey win31%
Expected goals: Toluca 1.7, Monterrey 1.4
Forecast updated 2 Nov, 06:34 UTC · These are model estimates, not certainties: any of the three results can still happen.
Match preview
Toluca have the edge at 45%, but this is far from one-sided: the draw is at 24% and Monterrey at 31%. Goals look likely, with over 2.5 goals at 61%, and expected goals of 1.7 for Toluca and 1.4 for Monterrey. Every figure is an estimate, not a certainty: form, injuries and team news can still change the picture.
Toluca vs Monterrey: the next meeting
Toluca vs Monterrey
· Liga MX · Toluca at home
Toluca vs Monterrey head-to-head
Every meeting on record, Oct 21, 2018 to Jan 11, 2026
20 meetings: Toluca won 8, Monterrey won 8 and 4 were drawn. Goals: Toluca 32, Monterrey 28.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Monterrey | 0-1 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Toluca | 3-2 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Monterrey | 1-0 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| Sep 25, 2025 | Toluca | 6-2 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| May 11, 2025 | Toluca | 2-1 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| May 8, 2025 | Monterrey | 3-2 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Toluca | 1-1 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Monterrey | 1-2 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| Feb 19, 2024 | Monterrey | 0-0 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| Aug 31, 2023 | Toluca | 1-0 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
Show all 20 meetings
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2023 | Monterrey | 2-1 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| Aug 18, 2022 | Toluca | 1-1 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Apr 7, 2022 | Toluca | 2-2 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Sep 23, 2021 | Monterrey | 2-0 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| Apr 11, 2021 | Toluca | 1-2 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Jul 29, 2020 | Monterrey | 3-1 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| Feb 29, 2020 | Toluca | 2-0 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Aug 18, 2019 | Monterrey | 2-0 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| Apr 7, 2019 | Toluca | 5-1 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Oct 21, 2018 | Monterrey | 2-1 | Toluca | Liga MX |
Scores are written home side first.
What has happened when Toluca and Monterrey meet
Counted over their 20 meetings on record
Both teams scored in 13 of their 20 meetings, and 11 had more than 2.5 goals.
| Result | Meetings |
|---|---|
| Both teams scored | 65%13 of 20 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%16 of 20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55%11 of 20 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%6 of 20 |
| Toluca kept a clean sheet | 20%4 of 20 |
| Monterrey kept a clean sheet | 20%4 of 20 |
| Toluca won at home | 60%6 of 10 |
| Monterrey won at home | 70%7 of 10 |
Toluca and Monterrey side by side
Each club's last 12 months, all competitions
| Result | Toluca | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24 won, 14 drawn, 13 lost in 51 | 16 won, 9 drawn, 18 lost in 43 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Won | 47%24 of 51 | 37%16 of 43 |
| Drew | 27%14 of 51 | 21%9 of 43 |
| Lost | 25%13 of 51 | 42%18 of 43 |
| Both teams scored | 55%28 of 51 | 60%26 of 43 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75%38 of 51 | 81%35 of 43 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55%28 of 51 | 56%24 of 43 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37%19 of 51 | 35%15 of 43 |
| Kept a clean sheet | 33%17 of 51 | 23%10 of 43 |
| Did not score | 22%11 of 51 | 21%9 of 43 |
Toluca and Monterrey: the last five results
Toluca
- Drew2-2Away against Club AméricaNov 1, 2026
- Drew1-1Away against LeónOct 24, 2026
- Drew2-2Home against TijuanaOct 22, 2026
- Drew1-1Home against Atlético San LuisOct 18, 2026
- Lost2-3Away against TigresOct 10, 2026
Toluca goals first.
Monterrey
- Drew3-3Home against TijuanaNov 1, 2026
- Drew1-1Home against ChivasOct 25, 2026
- Won4-1Away against PueblaOct 22, 2026
- Won2-1Home against PachucaOct 19, 2026
- Drew1-1Away against Club AméricaOct 11, 2026
Monterrey goals first.
Toluca and Monterrey in the table
Goals, both teams to score and clean sheets
The model's estimates for this match's goal markets.
| Market | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Both teams score | 63% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% |
| Toluca score | 82% |
| Monterrey score | 76% |
| Toluca score 2 or more | 52% |
| Monterrey score 2 or more | 42% |
| Toluca keep a clean sheet | 24% |
| Monterrey keep a clean sheet | 18% |
Questions about Toluca vs Monterrey
How many times have Toluca and Monterrey met?
20 times on record. Toluca won 8, Monterrey won 8 and 4 were drawn.
How often do both teams score when Toluca and Monterrey meet?
Both teams scored in 13 of their 20 meetings on record (65%).
How is this prediction made?
It is a model estimate from predictapp, built from pre-match context: the expected goal difference between the two sides, recent results, squad value and recent meetings. This one was made 2 Nov, 06:34 UTC and is updated as new information arrives.
Is this a tip?
No. It is an estimate of how likely each result is, not advice to bet. What you do with it is your decision.
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