'A line is only half the question'
The line says how many yards. It does not say how likely. The second part is a probability: the chance a player clears the line, and the price that chance is worth.
From projection to price
A projection is not one number. A receiver projected for 60 yards might finish with 20 or with 110. A good model works out the whole spread of outcomes and shows the 80% projected range, the band his result should land in four times out of five.
Once you have the spread, any line is a simple question: how much of it sits above the line. That share is the probability of the over. Move the line from 49.5 to 59.5 and the probability falls, by an amount you can see instead of guess.
The fair price is 1 divided by that probability. A 50% chance is worth 2.00. If you are offered less than the fair price, you are being paid too little for the risk. SportHoot does not compare prices for you; the fair price is a reference number.
Prop pricing, answered
Why are prop lines half points?
So the bet cannot land exactly on the number. A line of 49.5 yards has only two outcomes, over or under. A whole number adds a third, the push, where the stake comes back.
Is the fair price a recommendation?
No. It is the price that matches the model's probability. What you do with it is your decision.
Learn the method
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