'The number that tells you if a price is worth taking'
A fair price is what the odds would have to be for a bet to break even at its real probability. Compare it to what your sportsbook offers and you can see what you are being charged.
How a fair price works
If something happens half the time, a bet on it breaks even at 2.00. At 1.80 you are paying for the privilege. At 2.20 you are being paid to take it.
The formula is one divided by the probability. A 74% chance breaks even at 1.35. A 35% chance breaks even at 2.86.
A model probability converts directly into a fair price. SportHoot does not show what any sportsbook is offering, because it has no odds feed. The comparison, and the decision, are yours.
This is also how the house makes its money. The price you are offered is shaded away from the fair price, and over a season that gap is what separates a winning process from a losing one.
Fair price, answered
Is a fair price a tip?
No. It is a reference number. It tells you what a price would need to be to break even at our estimated probability, nothing more.
Why doesn't SportHoot compare it to my sportsbook?
We have no NFL odds feed, so we cannot see what your book is offering. You do the comparison, which is the part that requires your judgement anyway.
Learn the method
NFL and NFL team names are trademarks of their respective owners. SportHoot is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the NFL or any NFL team. Probabilities are model estimates of what may happen, and SportHoot does not accept bets. 18+.