'We measured it, so you do not have to take our word'
Every projection below was scored against the real result, on games the model had not seen when it made them. The table shows what it projected, what happened, and how often the 80% projected range held.
How to read the table
Each row is one stat for one position. Projected is the average of what the model expected. Actual is the average of what the players did. When the two sit close together, the model is neither too high nor too low for that group.
The last column is the range test. Every player projection comes with an 80% projected range. If the range is honest, the real result should land inside it about four times out of five. The column shows how often it did.
The rows cover players projected for a real role. The bench is left out, and the cut is made on the projection before the game, not on what the player went on to score. Rows with fewer than 100 games are not shown.
How close the projections have been
This is a backtest on games the model had not seen. Each row compares what it projected with what happened, for players projected for a real role. The last column shows how often the result landed inside the 80% projected range.
| Market | Seasons | Player games | Projected | Actual | 80% range held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving yards, RB | 2021 to 2025 | 3,656 | 17.5 | 17.8 | 79.9% |
| Receiving yards, WR | 2021 to 2025 | 4,979 | 55.8 | 55.3 | 79.2% |
| Receiving yards, TE | 2021 to 2025 | 1,179 | 47.6 | 46.7 | 82.1% |
| Receptions, RB | 2021 to 2025 | 3,656 | 2.33 | 2.41 | 81.0% |
| Receptions, WR | 2021 to 2025 | 4,979 | 4.40 | 4.33 | 80.5% |
| Receptions, TE | 2021 to 2025 | 1,179 | 4.36 | 4.28 | 82.1% |
| Rushing yards, QB | 2022 to 2025 | 2,173 | 13.6 | 18.5 | 77.6% |
| Rushing yards, RB | 2021 to 2025 | 3,656 | 52.7 | 54.1 | 81.2% |
| Passing yards, QB | 2022 to 2025 | 2,173 | 221.1 | 223.7 | 81.2% |
| Anytime touchdown, QB | 2022 to 2025 | 2,173 | 15% | 19% | n/a |
| Anytime touchdown, RB | 2021 to 2025 | 3,656 | 48% | 50% | n/a |
| Anytime touchdown, WR | 2021 to 2025 | 4,979 | 33% | 35% | n/a |
| Anytime touchdown, TE | 2021 to 2025 | 1,179 | 33% | 33% | n/a |
| Passing touchdowns, QB | 2022 to 2025 | 2,173 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 80.5% |
Projection accuracy, answered
Is this a record of winning bets?
No. It measures how close the projections were and how often the range held. It does not count overs and unders won, because no sportsbook lines are tracked.
What does out of sample mean here?
Each game was scored by a version of the model that had not been trained on it. That is the difference between a test and a description of the past.
Learn the method
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