'Yards follow the ball'
Target share is the percentage of a team's pass attempts aimed at one player. A receiver cannot gain yards on passes thrown to someone else, so this is where receiving numbers start.
Reading target share
If a team throws 35 passes and 9 go to one receiver, his target share for that game is about 26%. Over a season, the top receivers on a team usually sit between 20% and 30%. A tight end or a pass-catching back is often in the teens.
Share is steadier than yards. A receiver can have a quiet game on eight targets because of two drops and a deep ball that missed. The eight targets say more about next week than the 40 yards do.
That is why the team pages on this site list target share next to yards and receptions. Player projections start from the same place: how much of the offense runs through each player, and what he does with it.
Target share, answered
What is a good target share?
Around 25% or more is a clear first option. Between 15% and 20% is a steady second or third option. Below 10% the player depends on a few big plays.
Is target share the same as air yards share?
No. Target share counts passes. Air yards share counts how far downfield those passes travel. A deep threat can have a modest target share and a large share of air yards.
Learn the method
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