'The outcome most betting tools quietly ignore'
When a whole-number line lands exactly on the number, the bet is a push and your stake comes back. It is not a win and it is not a loss, and pricing it as a loss makes every number wrong.
Why a push changes the price
Take a team at minus 7. The game can end with them winning by exactly 7, which returns your stake. That happens about 3% of the time on a whole number.
If you ignore the push and treat it as a loss, you price that bet too cheaply. Priced properly, on win divided by win plus lose, a minus 7 line comes out at 2.73 rather than the 2.82 you would get by ignoring it.
On a whole-number line the push chance is real and measurable, and any fair price has to include it.
Pushes, answered
How often does a push happen?
About 3% of the time on a whole-number NFL line, though it varies by the number. Common margins like 3 and 7 push more often than others.
How do I avoid a push?
Take a half-point line. A line ending in .5 cannot land exactly, so there is no push. You are usually paying a slightly worse price for that certainty.
Learn the method
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