NFL totals: every line and every team
The numbers behind NFL totals
Since 2000, 3018 of 6839 NFL games went over 45.5 points. This season: 58 of 120.
NFL games over each total
This season, through week 8
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 30.5 points | 88%106 of 120 | 83%5675 of 6839 |
| Over 42.5 points | 54%65 of 120 | 54%3688 of 6839 |
| Over 45.5 points | 48%58 of 120 | 44%3018 of 6839 |
| Over 48.5 points | 41%49 of 120 | 36%2469 of 6839 |
| Over 50.5 points | 38%46 of 120 | 32%2180 of 6839 |
Every team, games over 45.5
All 32 teams. Each links to its own page, where every line is counted.
| Bills | 86%6 of 7 | 42%188 of 443 |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 75%6 of 8 | 50%222 of 443 |
| Raiders | 75%6 of 8 | 46%200 of 438 |
| Lions | 71%5 of 7 | 53%230 of 435 |
| Giants | 71%5 of 7 | 43%190 of 446 |
| Bengals | 71%5 of 7 | 41%182 of 441 |
| Colts | 63%5 of 8 | 52%238 of 456 |
| Cardinals | 63%5 of 8 | 47%207 of 439 |
| Falcons | 63%5 of 8 | 45%200 of 443 |
| Ravens | 63%5 of 8 | 38%175 of 461 |
| Saints | 57%4 of 7 | 54%241 of 447 |
| 49ers | 57%4 of 7 | 46%209 of 453 |
| Texans | 57%4 of 7 | 42%173 of 412 |
| Panthers | 57%4 of 7 | 42%186 of 444 |
| Commanders | 57%4 of 7 | 42%183 of 437 |
| Chiefs | 43%3 of 7 | 46%212 of 457 |
| Seahawks | 43%3 of 7 | 46%210 of 459 |
| Dolphins | 43%3 of 7 | 37%163 of 435 |
| Bears | 43%3 of 7 | 37%162 of 439 |
| Packers | 38%3 of 8 | 54%251 of 462 |
| Rams | 38%3 of 8 | 48%219 of 452 |
| Patriots | 38%3 of 8 | 47%225 of 475 |
| Broncos | 38%3 of 8 | 45%203 of 447 |
| Titans | 38%3 of 8 | 43%190 of 443 |
| Jets | 38%3 of 8 | 36%160 of 441 |
| Steelers | 38%3 of 8 | 35%161 of 459 |
| Jaguars | 29%2 of 7 | 40%174 of 437 |
| Eagles | 25%2 of 8 | 45%211 of 465 |
| Buccaneers | 25%2 of 8 | 43%193 of 446 |
| Browns | 25%2 of 8 | 35%152 of 433 |
| Chargers | 14%1 of 7 | 47%209 of 443 |
| Vikings | 14%1 of 7 | 46%205 of 443 |
How the model has done here
Each row is a confidence band: what the model said on average, and in how many finished games it happened.
| Confidence | Model said | Happened |
|---|---|---|
| 20-30% | 27% | 35%41 of 118 |
| 30-40% | 36% | 35%255 of 722 |
| 40-50% | 45% | 45%567 of 1273 |
| 50-60% | 55% | 52%543 of 1052 |
| 60-70% | 64% | 61%358 of 587 |
| 70-80% | 74% | 66%124 of 187 |
Questions
How often do NFL games go over 45.5 points?
In 3018 of 6839 games since 2000 (44%), and 58 of 120 this season.
Which totals does this guide count?
The five lines the model prices for a game: 30.5, 42.5, 45.5, 48.5 and 50.5 points.
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