NFL moneyline: who wins, and every team
The numbers behind the NFL moneyline
Since 2000, the home team won 3819 of 6839 NFL games. This season: 62 of 120.
How often the home team wins
This season, through week 8
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| The home team won | 52%62 of 120 | 56%3819 of 6839 |
Every team's wins
All 32 teams. Each links to its own page, where every line is counted.
| Vikings | 86%6 of 7 | 53%234 of 443 |
|---|---|---|
| Bills | 86%6 of 7 | 51%224 of 443 |
| 49ers | 86%6 of 7 | 50%228 of 453 |
| Steelers | 75%6 of 8 | 62%286 of 459 |
| Broncos | 75%6 of 8 | 55%245 of 447 |
| Chiefs | 71%5 of 7 | 57%261 of 457 |
| Bears | 71%5 of 7 | 47%206 of 439 |
| Bengals | 71%5 of 7 | 46%205 of 441 |
| Jaguars | 71%5 of 7 | 40%175 of 437 |
| Lions | 71%5 of 7 | 40%174 of 435 |
| Patriots | 63%5 of 8 | 68%322 of 475 |
| Packers | 63%5 of 8 | 61%280 of 462 |
| Browns | 63%5 of 8 | 35%150 of 433 |
| Seahawks | 57%4 of 7 | 58%264 of 459 |
| Giants | 57%4 of 7 | 46%205 of 446 |
| Ravens | 50%4 of 8 | 59%274 of 461 |
| Rams | 50%4 of 8 | 49%220 of 452 |
| Raiders | 50%4 of 8 | 39%172 of 438 |
| Panthers | 43%3 of 7 | 45%200 of 444 |
| Cowboys | 38%3 of 8 | 52%231 of 443 |
| Falcons | 38%3 of 8 | 48%214 of 443 |
| Buccaneers | 38%3 of 8 | 47%209 of 446 |
| Cardinals | 38%3 of 8 | 42%183 of 439 |
| Saints | 29%2 of 7 | 54%243 of 447 |
| Texans | 29%2 of 7 | 44%183 of 412 |
| Commanders | 29%2 of 7 | 41%180 of 437 |
| Eagles | 25%2 of 8 | 59%275 of 465 |
| Colts | 25%2 of 8 | 57%261 of 456 |
| Jets | 25%2 of 8 | 42%184 of 441 |
| Dolphins | 14%1 of 7 | 47%205 of 435 |
| Titans | 13%1 of 8 | 47%208 of 443 |
| Chargers | 0%0 of 7 | 50%220 of 443 |
How the model has done here
Each row is a confidence band: what the model said on average, and in how many finished games it happened.
| Confidence | Model said | Happened |
|---|---|---|
| 50-60% | 55% | 55%1035 of 1880 |
| 60-70% | 65% | 65%1039 of 1603 |
| 70-80% | 74% | 74%807 of 1086 |
| 80-90% | 84% | 82%345 of 421 |
Questions
How often does the home team win in the NFL?
In 3819 of 6839 games since 2000 (56%), and 62 of 120 this season.
Does SportHoot pick winners?
No. A forecast is the probability of each side winning, not a pick. You make your own decisions.
NFL, team and player names are used for identification only and are trademarks of their respective owners. SportHoot is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the NFL, any team or any player. The tables on this page are past results, not predictions. 18+.