NFL spreads: margins and every team
The numbers behind NFL spreads
Since 2000, 5235 of 6839 NFL games were decided by more than 3.5 points, and 3610 by more than 7.5.
How NFL games are decided
This season, through week 8
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Decided by more than 3.5 | 78%93 of 120 | 77%5235 of 6839 |
| Decided by more than 7.5 | 46%55 of 120 | 53%3610 of 6839 |
| Decided by more than 10.5 | 37%44 of 120 | 42%2864 of 6839 |
| Decided by more than 14.5 | 27%32 of 120 | 30%2076 of 6839 |
Every team, games won by 4 or more
All 32 teams. Each links to its own page, where every line is counted.
| Vikings | 86%6 of 7 | 41%183 of 443 |
|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 71%5 of 7 | 40%179 of 453 |
| Bengals | 71%5 of 7 | 37%165 of 441 |
| Bears | 71%5 of 7 | 36%156 of 439 |
| Steelers | 63%5 of 8 | 49%225 of 459 |
| Broncos | 63%5 of 8 | 41%185 of 447 |
| Bills | 57%4 of 7 | 40%175 of 443 |
| Giants | 57%4 of 7 | 37%163 of 446 |
| Jaguars | 57%4 of 7 | 30%133 of 437 |
| Patriots | 50%4 of 8 | 56%265 of 475 |
| Rams | 50%4 of 8 | 38%171 of 452 |
| Raiders | 50%4 of 8 | 28%121 of 438 |
| Chiefs | 43%3 of 7 | 45%206 of 457 |
| Seahawks | 43%3 of 7 | 44%201 of 459 |
| Panthers | 43%3 of 7 | 35%155 of 444 |
| Lions | 43%3 of 7 | 29%126 of 435 |
| Packers | 38%3 of 8 | 50%232 of 462 |
| Ravens | 38%3 of 8 | 46%214 of 461 |
| Cowboys | 38%3 of 8 | 40%178 of 443 |
| Falcons | 38%3 of 8 | 36%158 of 443 |
| Buccaneers | 38%3 of 8 | 35%156 of 446 |
| Saints | 29%2 of 7 | 42%188 of 447 |
| Jets | 25%2 of 8 | 31%138 of 441 |
| Texans | 14%1 of 7 | 33%137 of 412 |
| Commanders | 14%1 of 7 | 28%123 of 437 |
| Eagles | 13%1 of 8 | 49%226 of 465 |
| Colts | 13%1 of 8 | 43%198 of 456 |
| Titans | 13%1 of 8 | 33%146 of 443 |
| Cardinals | 13%1 of 8 | 30%132 of 439 |
| Browns | 13%1 of 8 | 23%101 of 433 |
| Chargers | 0%0 of 7 | 39%173 of 443 |
| Dolphins | 0%0 of 7 | 36%155 of 435 |
How the model has done here
Each row is a confidence band: what the model said on average, and in how many finished games it happened.
| Confidence | Model said | Happened |
|---|---|---|
| 50-60% | 55% | 55%1035 of 1880 |
| 60-70% | 65% | 65%1039 of 1603 |
| 70-80% | 74% | 74%807 of 1086 |
| 80-90% | 84% | 82%345 of 421 |
Questions
How often is an NFL game decided by more than a touchdown?
By more than 7.5 points in 3610 of 6839 games since 2000 (53%).
How often does the home team win in the NFL?
In 3819 of 6839 games since 2000 (56%).
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