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NFL passing touchdowns: leaders and prop lines

The numbers behind NFL passing touchdowns props

Joe Burrow leads the league with 20 passing touchdowns in 7 games, through week 8.

Passing touchdowns leaders

This season, through week 8

The players with the most passing touchdowns, with games over each line
Joe BurrowQB7202.9100%7 of 771%5 of 757%4 of 743%3 of 7
Kirk CousinsQB8192.4100%8 of 888%7 of 850%4 of 80%0 of 8
Trevor LawrenceQB7172.486%6 of 771%5 of 757%4 of 729%2 of 7
Jordan LoveQB8162100%8 of 888%7 of 813%1 of 80%0 of 8
Brock PurdyQB7152.1100%7 of 771%5 of 729%2 of 714%1 of 7
Drake MayeQB8151.975%6 of 863%5 of 838%3 of 813%1 of 8
Jared GoffQB7152.1100%7 of 771%5 of 729%2 of 714%1 of 7
Matthew StaffordQB8151.975%6 of 863%5 of 838%3 of 813%1 of 8
Dak PrescottQB8141.8100%8 of 838%3 of 825%2 of 813%1 of 8
Aaron RodgersQB8131.675%6 of 850%4 of 838%3 of 80%0 of 8
Bryce YoungQB7131.9100%7 of 757%4 of 729%2 of 70%0 of 7
Tyler ShoughQB7131.986%6 of 743%3 of 743%3 of 714%1 of 7
Geno SmithQB8121.588%7 of 838%3 of 825%2 of 80%0 of 8
Patrick MahomesQB7121.771%5 of 771%5 of 729%2 of 70%0 of 7
C.J. StroudQB7111.686%6 of 757%4 of 714%1 of 70%0 of 7
Josh AllenQB7111.686%6 of 757%4 of 714%1 of 70%0 of 7
Jacoby BrissettQB8101.375%6 of 838%3 of 813%1 of 80%0 of 8
Bo NixQB891.188%7 of 825%2 of 80%0 of 80%0 of 8
Michael Penix Jr.QB691.583%5 of 633%2 of 633%2 of 60%0 of 6
Jalen HurtsQB581.680%4 of 560%3 of 520%1 of 50%0 of 5
Sam DarnoldQB681.367%4 of 633%2 of 617%1 of 617%1 of 6
Deshaun WatsonQB870.963%5 of 825%2 of 80%0 of 80%0 of 8
Jameis WinstonQB671.250%3 of 633%2 of 633%2 of 60%0 of 6
Cam WardQB860.863%5 of 813%1 of 80%0 of 80%0 of 8
Jayden DanielsQB561.280%4 of 540%2 of 50%0 of 50%0 of 5
Lamar JacksonQB561.280%4 of 540%2 of 50%0 of 50%0 of 5
Malik WillisQB760.957%4 of 729%2 of 70%0 of 70%0 of 7
Caleb WilliamsQB451.375%3 of 450%2 of 40%0 of 40%0 of 4
Daniel JonesQB850.663%5 of 80%0 of 80%0 of 80%0 of 8
Justin HerbertQB750.771%5 of 70%0 of 70%0 of 70%0 of 7
Kyler MurrayQB650.867%4 of 617%1 of 60%0 of 60%0 of 6
Drew LockQB242100%2 of 250%1 of 250%1 of 20%0 of 2
Marcus MariotaQB341.367%2 of 333%1 of 333%1 of 30%0 of 3
Tyler HuntleyQB540.860%3 of 520%1 of 50%0 of 50%0 of 5
Baker MayfieldQB530.660%3 of 50%0 of 50%0 of 50%0 of 5
Carson WentzQB231.550%1 of 250%1 of 250%1 of 20%0 of 2
Gardner MinshewQB133100%1 of 1100%1 of 1100%1 of 10%0 of 1
Jalon DanielsQB530.660%3 of 50%0 of 50%0 of 50%0 of 5
Jaxson DartQB231.550%1 of 250%1 of 250%1 of 20%0 of 2
Case KeenumQB320.733%1 of 333%1 of 30%0 of 30%0 of 3

All 32 teams

This season, through week 8

Each team's passing touchdowns a game. Every team links to its page.

Teams by passing touchdowns a game
1Bengals2.9
2Jaguars2.4
2Raiders2.4
4Lions2.1
449ers2.1
6Packers2
7Panthers1.9
7Rams1.9
7Patriots1.9
7Saints1.9
11Cowboys1.8
12Chiefs1.7
12Seahawks1.7
14Cardinals1.6
14Bills1.6
14Texans1.6
14Giants1.6
14Steelers1.6
14Commanders1.6
20Jets1.5
21Falcons1.3
21Ravens1.3
21Eagles1.3
24Broncos1.1
24Vikings1.1
26Bears1
27Browns0.9
27Dolphins0.9
29Buccaneers0.8
29Titans0.8
31Chargers0.7
32Colts0.6

How close the model's projections have been

Tested on games the model had not seen: what it projected next to what happened, for players projected for a real role. The last column is how often the result landed inside the projected 80% range.

Projected and actual, by market
MarketThis seasonPlayer gamesProjectedActualInside the 80% range
Passing touchdowns, QB2022 to 20252,1731.391.3980.5%
See the full accuracy table

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