NFL passing touchdowns: leaders and prop lines
The numbers behind NFL passing touchdowns props
Joe Burrow leads the league with 20 passing touchdowns in 7 games, through week 8.
Passing touchdowns leaders
This season, through week 8
| Joe Burrow | QB | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 100%7 of 7 | 71%5 of 7 | 57%4 of 7 | 43%3 of 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | QB | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 100%8 of 8 | 88%7 of 8 | 50%4 of 8 | 0%0 of 8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 86%6 of 7 | 71%5 of 7 | 57%4 of 7 | 29%2 of 7 |
| Jordan Love | QB | 8 | 16 | 2 | 100%8 of 8 | 88%7 of 8 | 13%1 of 8 | 0%0 of 8 |
| Brock Purdy | QB | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 100%7 of 7 | 71%5 of 7 | 29%2 of 7 | 14%1 of 7 |
| Drake Maye | QB | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 75%6 of 8 | 63%5 of 8 | 38%3 of 8 | 13%1 of 8 |
| Jared Goff | QB | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 100%7 of 7 | 71%5 of 7 | 29%2 of 7 | 14%1 of 7 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 75%6 of 8 | 63%5 of 8 | 38%3 of 8 | 13%1 of 8 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 100%8 of 8 | 38%3 of 8 | 25%2 of 8 | 13%1 of 8 |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 75%6 of 8 | 50%4 of 8 | 38%3 of 8 | 0%0 of 8 |
| Bryce Young | QB | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 100%7 of 7 | 57%4 of 7 | 29%2 of 7 | 0%0 of 7 |
| Tyler Shough | QB | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 86%6 of 7 | 43%3 of 7 | 43%3 of 7 | 14%1 of 7 |
| Geno Smith | QB | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 88%7 of 8 | 38%3 of 8 | 25%2 of 8 | 0%0 of 8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 71%5 of 7 | 71%5 of 7 | 29%2 of 7 | 0%0 of 7 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 86%6 of 7 | 57%4 of 7 | 14%1 of 7 | 0%0 of 7 |
| Josh Allen | QB | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 86%6 of 7 | 57%4 of 7 | 14%1 of 7 | 0%0 of 7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 75%6 of 8 | 38%3 of 8 | 13%1 of 8 | 0%0 of 8 |
| Bo Nix | QB | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 88%7 of 8 | 25%2 of 8 | 0%0 of 8 | 0%0 of 8 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 83%5 of 6 | 33%2 of 6 | 33%2 of 6 | 0%0 of 6 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 80%4 of 5 | 60%3 of 5 | 20%1 of 5 | 0%0 of 5 |
| Sam Darnold | QB | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 67%4 of 6 | 33%2 of 6 | 17%1 of 6 | 17%1 of 6 |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | 8 | 7 | 0.9 | 63%5 of 8 | 25%2 of 8 | 0%0 of 8 | 0%0 of 8 |
| Jameis Winston | QB | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 50%3 of 6 | 33%2 of 6 | 33%2 of 6 | 0%0 of 6 |
| Cam Ward | QB | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 63%5 of 8 | 13%1 of 8 | 0%0 of 8 | 0%0 of 8 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 80%4 of 5 | 40%2 of 5 | 0%0 of 5 | 0%0 of 5 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 80%4 of 5 | 40%2 of 5 | 0%0 of 5 | 0%0 of 5 |
| Malik Willis | QB | 7 | 6 | 0.9 | 57%4 of 7 | 29%2 of 7 | 0%0 of 7 | 0%0 of 7 |
| Caleb Williams | QB | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 75%3 of 4 | 50%2 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| Daniel Jones | QB | 8 | 5 | 0.6 | 63%5 of 8 | 0%0 of 8 | 0%0 of 8 | 0%0 of 8 |
| Justin Herbert | QB | 7 | 5 | 0.7 | 71%5 of 7 | 0%0 of 7 | 0%0 of 7 | 0%0 of 7 |
| Kyler Murray | QB | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 67%4 of 6 | 17%1 of 6 | 0%0 of 6 | 0%0 of 6 |
| Drew Lock | QB | 2 | 4 | 2 | 100%2 of 2 | 50%1 of 2 | 50%1 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 |
| Marcus Mariota | QB | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 67%2 of 3 | 33%1 of 3 | 33%1 of 3 | 0%0 of 3 |
| Tyler Huntley | QB | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 60%3 of 5 | 20%1 of 5 | 0%0 of 5 | 0%0 of 5 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 60%3 of 5 | 0%0 of 5 | 0%0 of 5 | 0%0 of 5 |
| Carson Wentz | QB | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 50%1 of 2 | 50%1 of 2 | 50%1 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 |
| Gardner Minshew | QB | 1 | 3 | 3 | 100%1 of 1 | 100%1 of 1 | 100%1 of 1 | 0%0 of 1 |
| Jalon Daniels | QB | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 60%3 of 5 | 0%0 of 5 | 0%0 of 5 | 0%0 of 5 |
| Jaxson Dart | QB | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 50%1 of 2 | 50%1 of 2 | 50%1 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 |
| Case Keenum | QB | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 33%1 of 3 | 33%1 of 3 | 0%0 of 3 | 0%0 of 3 |
All 32 teams
This season, through week 8
Each team's passing touchdowns a game. Every team links to its page.
| 1 | Bengals | 2.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jaguars | 2.4 |
| 2 | Raiders | 2.4 |
| 4 | Lions | 2.1 |
| 4 | 49ers | 2.1 |
| 6 | Packers | 2 |
| 7 | Panthers | 1.9 |
| 7 | Rams | 1.9 |
| 7 | Patriots | 1.9 |
| 7 | Saints | 1.9 |
| 11 | Cowboys | 1.8 |
| 12 | Chiefs | 1.7 |
| 12 | Seahawks | 1.7 |
| 14 | Cardinals | 1.6 |
| 14 | Bills | 1.6 |
| 14 | Texans | 1.6 |
| 14 | Giants | 1.6 |
| 14 | Steelers | 1.6 |
| 14 | Commanders | 1.6 |
| 20 | Jets | 1.5 |
| 21 | Falcons | 1.3 |
| 21 | Ravens | 1.3 |
| 21 | Eagles | 1.3 |
| 24 | Broncos | 1.1 |
| 24 | Vikings | 1.1 |
| 26 | Bears | 1 |
| 27 | Browns | 0.9 |
| 27 | Dolphins | 0.9 |
| 29 | Buccaneers | 0.8 |
| 29 | Titans | 0.8 |
| 31 | Chargers | 0.7 |
| 32 | Colts | 0.6 |
How close the model's projections have been
Tested on games the model had not seen: what it projected next to what happened, for players projected for a real role. The last column is how often the result landed inside the projected 80% range.
| Market | This season | Player games | Projected | Actual | Inside the 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing touchdowns, QB | 2022 to 2025 | 2,173 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 80.5% |
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