NFL touchdowns: leaders and prop lines

The numbers behind NFL touchdowns props

Jahmyr Gibbs leads the league with 10 touchdowns in 7 games, through week 8.

Touchdowns leaders

This season, through week 8

The players with the most touchdowns, with games over each line

Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	7	10	1.4	86%6 of 7
Derrick Henry	RB	8	9	1.1	75%6 of 8
Javonte Williams	RB	8	9	1.1	75%6 of 8
Josh Allen	QB	7	9	1.3	86%6 of 7
Christian McCaffrey	RB	7	8	1.1	86%6 of 7
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	7	8	1.1	71%5 of 7
Jonathan Taylor	RB	8	8	1	63%5 of 8
Kenneth Walker III	RB	7	8	1.1	57%4 of 7
Chuba Hubbard	RB	7	7	1	71%5 of 7
D'Andre Swift	RB	7	7	1	57%4 of 7
James Cook	RB	7	7	1	86%6 of 7
Kyren Williams	RB	8	7	0.9	75%6 of 8
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	7	6	0.9	57%4 of 7
Bucky Irving	RB	8	6	0.8	50%4 of 8
CeeDee Lamb	WR	8	6	0.8	50%4 of 8
Christian Watson	WR	8	6	0.8	50%4 of 8
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	7	6	0.9	71%5 of 7
Mike Gesicki	TE	7	6	0.9	86%6 of 7
Tony Pollard	RB	8	6	0.8	38%3 of 8
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	7	5	0.7	43%3 of 7
Bijan Robinson	RB	8	5	0.6	38%3 of 8
Brock Bowers	TE	6	5	0.8	67%4 of 6
George Kittle	TE	7	5	0.7	57%4 of 7
Isaiah Likely	TE	7	5	0.7	43%3 of 7
Jameson Williams	WR	7	5	0.7	43%3 of 7
Pat Freiermuth	TE	8	5	0.6	50%4 of 8
Stefon Diggs	WR	6	5	0.8	67%4 of 6
Trey McBride	TE	8	5	0.6	63%5 of 8
Ashton Jeanty	RB	8	4	0.5	38%3 of 8
Blake Corum	RB	8	4	0.5	50%4 of 8
Brian Robinson	RB	6	4	0.7	33%2 of 6
Darius Cooper	WR	8	4	0.5	38%3 of 8
Davante Adams	WR	6	4	0.7	33%2 of 6
DeMario Douglas	WR	8	4	0.5	38%3 of 8
Emanuel Wilson	RB	7	4	0.6	43%3 of 7
Justin Jefferson	WR	6	4	0.7	50%3 of 6
Kyle Pitts	TE	8	4	0.5	38%3 of 8
Matthew Golden	WR	8	4	0.5	50%4 of 8
Mike Evans	WR	6	4	0.7	50%3 of 6
Ollie Gordon II	RB	7	4	0.6	57%4 of 7

All 32 teams

This season, through week 8

Each team's touchdowns a game. Every team links to its page.

Teams by touchdowns a game

1	Bills	3.9
2	49ers	3.6
3	Bengals	3.4
3	Lions	3.4
5	Jaguars	3.3
6	Rams	3.1
7	Bears	3
7	Cowboys	3
9	Panthers	2.9
9	Raiders	2.9
11	Chiefs	2.7
11	Saints	2.7
13	Patriots	2.6
13	Seahawks	2.6
15	Ravens	2.5
15	Packers	2.5
17	Texans	2.4
17	Giants	2.4
19	Falcons	2.3
19	Commanders	2.3
21	Cardinals	2.1
21	Broncos	2.1
21	Jets	2.1
21	Eagles	2.1
21	Steelers	2.1
26	Colts	1.9
26	Dolphins	1.9
26	Buccaneers	1.9
29	Titans	1.8
30	Browns	1.6
30	Vikings	1.6
32	Chargers	1.3

How close the model's projections have been

Tested on games the model had not seen: what it projected next to what happened, for players projected for a real role. The last column is how often the result landed inside the projected 80% range.

Projected and actual, by market
Market	This season	Player games	Projected	Actual	Inside the 80% range
Anytime touchdown, QB	2022 to 2025	2,173	15%	19%	-
Anytime touchdown, RB	2021 to 2025	3,656	48%	50%	-
Anytime touchdown, WR	2021 to 2025	4,979	33%	35%	-
Anytime touchdown, TE	2021 to 2025	1,179	33%	33%	-

See the full accuracy table

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