Pittsburgh Steelers: predictions, props and stats
The numbers behind the Steelers
The Steelers are 6-2 through week 8, scoring 22.5 points a game and allowing 18.0.
Every table on this page is a result from games already played, not a prediction.
Next game
Results and scoring
This season, through week 8
6-2, with 22.5 points scored and 18.0 allowed a game.
| Wk | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | vsBrowns | 27-6 | Won |
| 7 | @Saints | 16-10 | Won |
| 6 | @Buccaneers | 26-19 OT | Won |
| 5 | vsColts | 34-22 | Won |
| 4 | @Browns | 24-27 | Lost |
| 3 | vsBengals | 30-27 | Won |
| 2 | @Patriots | 3-20 | Lost |
| 1 | vsFalcons | 20-13 | Won |
| Stat | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored a game | 22.5 | 22.8 |
| Points allowed a game | 18.0 | 19.5 |
| Average margin | +4.5 | +3.3 |
| Went to overtime | 13%1 of 8 | 7%32 of 459 |
Steelers against the spread
Since 2000 the Steelers have won by more than 3.5 points in 225 of 459 games, with an average margin of +3.3.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Won by 8 or more (covers -7.5) | 25%2 of 8 | 32%149 of 459 |
| Won by 4 or more (covers -3.5) | 63%5 of 8 | 49%225 of 459 |
| Won, or lost by 3 or fewer (covers +3.5) | 88%7 of 8 | 74%341 of 459 |
| Won, or lost by 7 or fewer (covers +7.5) | 88%7 of 8 | 83%382 of 459 |
Game totals in Steelers games
Since 2000, Steelers games have gone over 45.5 points in 161 of 459.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 30.5 points | 75%6 of 8 | 79%362 of 459 |
| Over 42.5 points | 50%4 of 8 | 47%218 of 459 |
| Over 45.5 points | 38%3 of 8 | 35%161 of 459 |
| Over 48.5 points | 38%3 of 8 | 29%133 of 459 |
| Over 50.5 points | 38%3 of 8 | 25%116 of 459 |
Steelers wins, home and away
Since 2000 the Steelers have won 286 of 459 games: 159 of 231 at home and 127 of 228 away.
| Stat | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| All games | 75%6 of 8 | 62%286 of 459 |
| At home | 100%4 of 4 | 69%159 of 231 |
| Away | 50%2 of 4 | 56%127 of 228 |
Steelers points against team totals
Since 2000 the Steelers have scored more than 20.5 points in 261 of 459 games.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored over 14.5 | 88%7 of 8 | 80%369 of 459 |
| Scored over 20.5 | 63%5 of 8 | 57%261 of 459 |
| Scored over 24.5 | 50%4 of 8 | 40%182 of 459 |
| Scored over 27.5 | 25%2 of 8 | 28%130 of 459 |
| Scored over 30.5 | 13%1 of 8 | 19%86 of 459 |
Steelers passing
This season, through week 8
| Aaron Rodgers | 8 | 175 | 285 | 1871 | 13 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers rushing
This season, through week 8
| Jaylen Warren | RB | 8 | 119 | 704 | 2 | 68% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | RB | 5 | 46 | 174 | 1 | 38% |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 8 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 1% |
| Travis Homer | RB | 7 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 4% |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | 8 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2% |
| Lew Nichols III | RB | 6 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2% |
| DK Metcalf | WR | 8 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 1% |
| Mason Rudolph | QB | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% |
Steelers receiving
This season, through week 8
| DK Metcalf | WR | 64 | 33 | 378 | 1 | 23% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germie Bernard | WR | 42 | 32 | 284 | 1 | 16% |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | 37 | 25 | 294 | 1 | 14% |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | 35 | 25 | 235 | 4 | 13% |
| Darnell Washington | TE | 28 | 19 | 254 | 3 | 11% |
| Roman Wilson | WR | 25 | 14 | 188 | 2 | 14% |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | 17 | 13 | 82 | 0 | 10% |
| Michael Pittman | WR | 12 | 7 | 89 | 0 | 11% |
Who scores for the Steelers
This season, through week 8
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | 1 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | RB | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Darnell Washington | TE | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Roman Wilson | WR | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ben Skowronek | WR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Germie Bernard | WR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Steelers fantasy points
This season, through week 8
| Jaylen Warren | RB | 8 | 140.8 | 17.6 | 16.0 | 14.5 | 36.8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 8 | 117.9 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 22.9 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | 8 | 79.0 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 21.5 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | 8 | 77.9 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 20.3 |
| Germie Bernard | WR | 8 | 66.8 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 25.7 |
| Darnell Washington | TE | 8 | 62.4 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 12.5 |
| Roman Wilson | WR | 5 | 44.8 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 16.4 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | 5 | 44.6 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 14.6 |
| Michael Pittman | WR | 3 | 15.9 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 8.8 |
| Ben Skowronek | WR | 5 | 12.2 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 9.3 |
| Brandon Smith | WR | 4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 4.4 |
| Brandon Johnson | WR | 3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| Travis Homer | RB | 7 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Robert Tonyan | TE | 8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| Lew Nichols III | RB | 6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
What the Steelers defense allows
A game, over its last 25 games. Rank 1 is the defense that allows the most.
How close the model's projections have been
Tested on games the model had not seen: what it projected next to what happened, for players projected for a real role. The last column is how often the result landed inside the projected 80% range.
| Market | This season | Player games | Projected | Actual | Inside the 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving yards, WR | 2021 to 2025 | 4,979 | 55.8 | 55.3 | 79.2% |
| Rushing yards, RB | 2021 to 2025 | 3,656 | 52.7 | 54.1 | 81.2% |
| Passing yards, QB | 2022 to 2025 | 2,173 | 221.1 | 223.7 | 81.2% |
| Receiving yards, TE | 2021 to 2025 | 1,179 | 47.6 | 46.7 | 82.1% |
Questions about the Steelers
How often do Steelers games go over 45.5 points?
In 161 of 459 games since 2000 (35%). Every total from 30.5 to 50.5 is counted in the total section of this page.
How often do the Steelers win at home?
They have won 159 of 231 home games since 2000 (69%), and 127 of 228 away.
How often do the Steelers score more than 20.5 points?
In 261 of 459 games since 2000 (57%).
Are the numbers on this page predictions?
No. They are results from games already played, and each section says which games it counts.
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