Atlanta Falcons: predictions, props and stats
The numbers behind the Falcons
The Falcons are 3-5 through week 8, scoring 21.4 points a game and allowing 23.6.
Every table on this page is a result from games already played, not a prediction.
Next game
Results and scoring
This season, through week 8
3-5, with 21.4 points scored and 23.6 allowed a game.
| Wk | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | @Buccaneers | 0-16 | Lost |
| 7 | vs49ers | 29-20 | Won |
| 6 | vsBears | 23-31 | Lost |
| 5 | vsRavens | 23-30 OT | Lost |
| 4 | @Saints | 45-24 | Won |
| 3 | @Packers | 35-14 | Won |
| 2 | vsPanthers | 3-34 | Lost |
| 1 | @Steelers | 13-20 | Lost |
| Stat | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored a game | 21.4 | 22.3 |
| Points allowed a game | 23.6 | 23.2 |
| Average margin | -2.2 | -0.9 |
| Went to overtime | 13%1 of 8 | 7%32 of 443 |
Falcons against the spread
Since 2000 the Falcons have won by more than 3.5 points in 158 of 443 games, with an average margin of -0.9.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Won by 8 or more (covers -7.5) | 38%3 of 8 | 23%102 of 443 |
| Won by 4 or more (covers -3.5) | 38%3 of 8 | 36%158 of 443 |
| Won, or lost by 3 or fewer (covers +3.5) | 38%3 of 8 | 60%267 of 443 |
| Won, or lost by 7 or fewer (covers +7.5) | 63%5 of 8 | 73%323 of 443 |
Game totals in Falcons games
Since 2000, Falcons games have gone over 45.5 points in 200 of 443.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 30.5 points | 88%7 of 8 | 86%379 of 443 |
| Over 42.5 points | 63%5 of 8 | 54%238 of 443 |
| Over 45.5 points | 63%5 of 8 | 45%200 of 443 |
| Over 48.5 points | 63%5 of 8 | 38%170 of 443 |
| Over 50.5 points | 38%3 of 8 | 34%151 of 443 |
Falcons wins, home and away
Since 2000 the Falcons have won 214 of 443 games: 118 of 221 at home and 96 of 222 away.
| Stat | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| All games | 38%3 of 8 | 48%214 of 443 |
| At home | 25%1 of 4 | 53%118 of 221 |
| Away | 50%2 of 4 | 43%96 of 222 |
Falcons points against team totals
Since 2000 the Falcons have scored more than 20.5 points in 249 of 443 games.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored over 14.5 | 63%5 of 8 | 75%332 of 443 |
| Scored over 20.5 | 63%5 of 8 | 56%249 of 443 |
| Scored over 24.5 | 38%3 of 8 | 40%178 of 443 |
| Scored over 27.5 | 38%3 of 8 | 29%128 of 443 |
| Scored over 30.5 | 25%2 of 8 | 21%91 of 443 |
Falcons passing
This season, through week 8
| Michael Penix Jr. | 6 | 104 | 170 | 1282 | 9 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 2 | 22 | 39 | 229 | 1 | 4 |
| Jack Strand | 1 | 8 | 15 | 59 | 0 | 1 |
Falcons rushing
This season, through week 8
| Bijan Robinson | RB | 8 | 150 | 780 | 4 | 70% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | RB | 6 | 53 | 211 | 4 | 31% |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | 6 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 3% |
| Khalil Herbert | RB | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 11% |
| Drake London | WR | 8 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1% |
| Cooper Rush | QB | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 0% |
| Jack Strand | QB | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0% |
| Charlie Woerner | TE | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1% |
Falcons receiving
This season, through week 8
| Drake London | WR | 63 | 39 | 624 | 1 | 29% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | RB | 33 | 25 | 189 | 1 | 16% |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | 32 | 22 | 197 | 4 | 14% |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | 30 | 14 | 337 | 2 | 14% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 13 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 7% |
| Zachariah Branch | WR | 13 | 10 | 64 | 0 | 6% |
| Austin Hooper | TE | 11 | 9 | 76 | 1 | 5% |
| Charlie Woerner | TE | 7 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 3% |
Who scores for the Falcons
This season, through week 8
| Bijan Robinson | RB | 4 | 1 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | RB | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Austin Hooper | TE | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Drake London | WR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Muse | TE | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Falcons fantasy points
This season, through week 8
| Bijan Robinson | RB | 8 | 151.9 | 19.0 | 17.4 | 15.9 | 35.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | WR | 8 | 109.8 | 13.7 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 28.4 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | 6 | 83.5 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 23.1 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | 8 | 65.7 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 23.0 |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | 8 | 59.7 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 17.7 |
| Brian Robinson | RB | 6 | 53.1 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 25.7 |
| Austin Hooper | TE | 8 | 22.6 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 9.1 |
| Zachariah Branch | WR | 8 | 15.2 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 3.5 |
| Nick Muse | TE | 8 | 8.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 8.2 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 7 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 2.9 |
| Khalil Herbert | RB | 2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 3.8 |
| 00-0033662 | QB | 2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 5.7 |
| Charlie Woerner | TE | 8 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.3 |
| Chris Blair | WR | 7 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| Jack Strand | QB | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
What the Falcons defense allows
A game, over its last 25 games. Rank 1 is the defense that allows the most.
How close the model's projections have been
Tested on games the model had not seen: what it projected next to what happened, for players projected for a real role. The last column is how often the result landed inside the projected 80% range.
| Market | This season | Player games | Projected | Actual | Inside the 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving yards, WR | 2021 to 2025 | 4,979 | 55.8 | 55.3 | 79.2% |
| Rushing yards, RB | 2021 to 2025 | 3,656 | 52.7 | 54.1 | 81.2% |
| Passing yards, QB | 2022 to 2025 | 2,173 | 221.1 | 223.7 | 81.2% |
| Receiving yards, TE | 2021 to 2025 | 1,179 | 47.6 | 46.7 | 82.1% |
Questions about the Falcons
How often do Falcons games go over 45.5 points?
In 200 of 443 games since 2000 (45%). Every total from 30.5 to 50.5 is counted in the total section of this page.
How often do the Falcons win at home?
They have won 118 of 221 home games since 2000 (53%), and 96 of 222 away.
How often do the Falcons score more than 20.5 points?
In 249 of 443 games since 2000 (56%).
Are the numbers on this page predictions?
No. They are results from games already played, and each section says which games it counts.
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