Washington Commanders: predictions, props and stats
The numbers behind the Commanders
The Commanders are 2-4-1 through week 8, scoring 22.7 points a game and allowing 26.0.
Every table on this page is a result from games already played, not a prediction.
Next game
Results and scoring
This season, through week 8
2-4-1, with 22.7 points scored and 26.0 allowed a game.
| Wk | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | vsEagles | 27-10 | Won |
| 6 | @49ers | 17-23 | Lost |
| 5 | vsGiants | 27-27 OT | Tied |
| 4 | vsColts | 13-30 | Lost |
| 3 | vsSeahawks | 33-31 | Won |
| 2 | @Cowboys | 20-37 | Lost |
| 1 | @Eagles | 22-24 | Lost |
| Stat | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored a game | 22.7 | 20 |
| Points allowed a game | 26.0 | 23.1 |
| Average margin | -3.3 | -3.1 |
| Went to overtime | 14%1 of 7 | 6%28 of 437 |
Commanders against the spread
Since 2000 the Commanders have won by more than 3.5 points in 123 of 437 games, with an average margin of -3.1.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Won by 8 or more (covers -7.5) | 14%1 of 7 | 17%76 of 437 |
| Won by 4 or more (covers -3.5) | 14%1 of 7 | 28%123 of 437 |
| Won, or lost by 3 or fewer (covers +3.5) | 57%4 of 7 | 55%240 of 437 |
| Won, or lost by 7 or fewer (covers +7.5) | 71%5 of 7 | 68%296 of 437 |
Game totals in Commanders games
Since 2000, Commanders games have gone over 45.5 points in 183 of 437.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 30.5 points | 100%7 of 7 | 82%357 of 437 |
| Over 42.5 points | 71%5 of 7 | 48%211 of 437 |
| Over 45.5 points | 57%4 of 7 | 42%183 of 437 |
| Over 48.5 points | 43%3 of 7 | 34%148 of 437 |
| Over 50.5 points | 43%3 of 7 | 30%132 of 437 |
Commanders wins, home and away
Since 2000 the Commanders have won 180 of 437 games: 95 of 217 at home and 85 of 220 away.
| Stat | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| All games | 29%2 of 7 | 41%180 of 437 |
| At home | 50%2 of 4 | 44%95 of 217 |
| Away | 0%0 of 3 | 39%85 of 220 |
Commanders points against team totals
Since 2000 the Commanders have scored more than 20.5 points in 187 of 437 games.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored over 14.5 | 86%6 of 7 | 73%320 of 437 |
| Scored over 20.5 | 57%4 of 7 | 43%187 of 437 |
| Scored over 24.5 | 43%3 of 7 | 28%122 of 437 |
| Scored over 27.5 | 14%1 of 7 | 17%73 of 437 |
| Scored over 30.5 | 14%1 of 7 | 13%55 of 437 |
Commanders passing
This season, through week 8
| Jayden Daniels | 5 | 91 | 145 | 976 | 6 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 33 | 51 | 340 | 4 | 0 |
| Athan Kaliakmanis | 1 | 15 | 33 | 186 | 1 | 1 |
Commanders rushing
This season, through week 8
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 5 | 67 | 239 | 2 | 53% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | RB | 6 | 47 | 200 | 1 | 35% |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | 5 | 25 | 238 | 2 | 3% |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | 4 | 17 | 67 | 0 | 19% |
| Jeremy McNichols | RB | 2 | 10 | 34 | 0 | 29% |
| Marcus Mariota | QB | 3 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 3% |
| Athan Kaliakmanis | QB | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 5% |
| Craig Reynolds | RB | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10% |
Commanders receiving
This season, through week 8
| Stefon Diggs | WR | 44 | 27 | 252 | 5 | 23% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Williams | WR | 33 | 23 | 259 | 1 | 15% |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | 28 | 15 | 230 | 1 | 19% |
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | 24 | 17 | 182 | 0 | 16% |
| Treylon Burks | WR | 22 | 12 | 233 | 2 | 12% |
| Rachaad White | RB | 18 | 16 | 88 | 2 | 10% |
| Dyami Brown | WR | 16 | 9 | 94 | 0 | 7% |
| John Bates | TE | 7 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 3% |
Who scores for the Commanders
This season, through week 8
| Stefon Diggs | WR | 0 | 5 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | RB | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Treylon Burks | WR | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Antonio Williams | WR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Commanders fantasy points
This season, through week 8
| Jayden Daniels | QB | 5 | 100.8 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 32.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | WR | 6 | 82.2 | 13.7 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 21.7 |
| Rachaad White | RB | 6 | 62.8 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 15.7 |
| Antonio Williams | WR | 7 | 54.9 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 16.4 |
| Treylon Burks | WR | 6 | 47.3 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 11.7 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | 5 | 46.0 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 19.7 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 5 | 44.9 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 14.2 |
| Marcus Mariota | QB | 3 | 34.7 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 20.6 |
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | 5 | 33.2 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 13.9 |
| Dyami Brown | WR | 7 | 16.4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 9.5 |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | 4 | 15.7 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 5.6 |
| Athan Kaliakmanis | QB | 1 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| John Bates | TE | 7 | 7.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 3.3 |
| Jeremy McNichols | RB | 2 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 3.8 |
| Jaylin Lane | WR | 4 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 3.1 |
What the Commanders defense allows
A game, over its last 24 games. Rank 1 is the defense that allows the most.
How close the model's projections have been
Tested on games the model had not seen: what it projected next to what happened, for players projected for a real role. The last column is how often the result landed inside the projected 80% range.
| Market | This season | Player games | Projected | Actual | Inside the 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving yards, WR | 2021 to 2025 | 4,979 | 55.8 | 55.3 | 79.2% |
| Rushing yards, RB | 2021 to 2025 | 3,656 | 52.7 | 54.1 | 81.2% |
| Passing yards, QB | 2022 to 2025 | 2,173 | 221.1 | 223.7 | 81.2% |
| Receiving yards, TE | 2021 to 2025 | 1,179 | 47.6 | 46.7 | 82.1% |
Questions about the Commanders
How often do Commanders games go over 45.5 points?
In 183 of 437 games since 2000 (42%). Every total from 30.5 to 50.5 is counted in the total section of this page.
How often do the Commanders win at home?
They have won 95 of 217 home games since 2000 (44%), and 85 of 220 away.
How often do the Commanders score more than 20.5 points?
In 187 of 437 games since 2000 (43%).
Are the numbers on this page predictions?
No. They are results from games already played, and each section says which games it counts.
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