Chicago Bears: predictions, props and stats
The numbers behind the Bears
The Bears are 5-2 through week 8, scoring 25.7 points a game and allowing 20.4.
Every table on this page is a result from games already played, not a prediction.
Next game
Results and scoring
This season, through week 8
5-2, with 25.7 points scored and 20.4 allowed a game.
| Wk | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | vsPatriots | 30-24 | Won |
| 6 | @Falcons | 31-23 | Won |
| 5 | @Packers | 7-31 | Lost |
| 4 | vsJets | 23-12 | Won |
| 3 | vsEagles | 27-7 | Won |
| 2 | vsVikings | 3-9 | Lost |
| 1 | @Panthers | 59-37 | Won |
| Stat | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored a game | 25.7 | 20.5 |
| Points allowed a game | 20.4 | 21.6 |
| Average margin | +5.3 | -1 |
| Went to overtime | 0%0 of 7 | 7%29 of 439 |
Bears against the spread
Since 2000 the Bears have won by more than 3.5 points in 156 of 439 games, with an average margin of -1.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Won by 8 or more (covers -7.5) | 57%4 of 7 | 23%99 of 439 |
| Won by 4 or more (covers -3.5) | 71%5 of 7 | 36%156 of 439 |
| Won, or lost by 3 or fewer (covers +3.5) | 71%5 of 7 | 58%255 of 439 |
| Won, or lost by 7 or fewer (covers +7.5) | 86%6 of 7 | 72%314 of 439 |
Game totals in Bears games
Since 2000, Bears games have gone over 45.5 points in 162 of 439.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 30.5 points | 86%6 of 7 | 80%353 of 439 |
| Over 42.5 points | 43%3 of 7 | 47%205 of 439 |
| Over 45.5 points | 43%3 of 7 | 37%162 of 439 |
| Over 48.5 points | 43%3 of 7 | 30%131 of 439 |
| Over 50.5 points | 43%3 of 7 | 26%113 of 439 |
Bears wins, home and away
Since 2000 the Bears have won 206 of 439 games: 119 of 224 at home and 87 of 215 away.
| Stat | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| All games | 71%5 of 7 | 47%206 of 439 |
| At home | 75%3 of 4 | 53%119 of 224 |
| Away | 67%2 of 3 | 40%87 of 215 |
Bears points against team totals
Since 2000 the Bears have scored more than 20.5 points in 208 of 439 games.
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored over 14.5 | 71%5 of 7 | 70%308 of 439 |
| Scored over 20.5 | 71%5 of 7 | 47%208 of 439 |
| Scored over 24.5 | 57%4 of 7 | 30%132 of 439 |
| Scored over 27.5 | 43%3 of 7 | 20%89 of 439 |
| Scored over 30.5 | 29%2 of 7 | 15%65 of 439 |
Bears passing
This season, through week 8
| Caleb Williams | 4 | 88 | 124 | 1020 | 5 | 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Bagent | 3 | 42 | 63 | 409 | 0 | 3 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | 35 | 53 | 355 | 2 | 1 |
Bears rushing
This season, through week 8
| D'Andre Swift | RB | 7 | 116 | 476 | 7 | 55% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Monangai | RB | 4 | 60 | 324 | 3 | 40% |
| Roschon Johnson | RB | 7 | 24 | 86 | 1 | 12% |
| Caleb Williams | QB | 4 | 22 | 130 | 2 | 7% |
| Luther Burden III | WR | 7 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 4% |
| Tyson Bagent | QB | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 2% |
| Case Keenum | QB | 3 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 1% |
| Kalif Raymond | WR | 7 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 1% |
Bears receiving
This season, through week 8
| Luther Burden III | WR | 47 | 35 | 491 | 2 | 21% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colston Loveland | TE | 42 | 26 | 244 | 2 | 19% |
| Rome Odunze | WR | 38 | 24 | 381 | 0 | 17% |
| Kalif Raymond | WR | 31 | 26 | 244 | 1 | 14% |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | 25 | 22 | 152 | 0 | 11% |
| Cole Kmet | TE | 14 | 10 | 87 | 1 | 7% |
| Roschon Johnson | RB | 10 | 8 | 63 | 0 | 4% |
| Kyle Monangai | RB | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 4% |
Who scores for the Bears
This season, through week 8
| D'Andre Swift | RB | 7 | 0 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Monangai | RB | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Colston Loveland | TE | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Caleb Williams | QB | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Kalif Raymond | WR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cole Kmet | TE | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jahdae Walker | WR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Bears fantasy points
This season, through week 8
| D'Andre Swift | RB | 7 | 122.8 | 17.5 | 16.0 | 14.4 | 32.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III | WR | 7 | 97.0 | 13.9 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 23.7 |
| Caleb Williams | QB | 4 | 83.8 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 37.3 |
| Colston Loveland | TE | 7 | 62.4 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 19.9 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | 7 | 60.1 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 15.4 |
| Kyle Monangai | RB | 4 | 59.3 | 14.8 | 14.2 | 13.6 | 28.0 |
| Kalif Raymond | WR | 7 | 56.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 21.0 |
| Roschon Johnson | RB | 7 | 26.9 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 13.3 |
| Case Keenum | QB | 3 | 25.4 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 24.7 |
| Cole Kmet | TE | 7 | 24.7 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 11.5 |
| Tyson Bagent | QB | 3 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 9.1 |
| Zavion Thomas | WR | 7 | 9.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 5.5 |
| Jahdae Walker | WR | 7 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 7.1 |
| Sam Roush | TE | 7 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 2.6 |
What the Bears defense allows
A game, over its last 24 games. Rank 1 is the defense that allows the most.
How close the model's projections have been
Tested on games the model had not seen: what it projected next to what happened, for players projected for a real role. The last column is how often the result landed inside the projected 80% range.
| Market | This season | Player games | Projected | Actual | Inside the 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving yards, WR | 2021 to 2025 | 4,979 | 55.8 | 55.3 | 79.2% |
| Rushing yards, RB | 2021 to 2025 | 3,656 | 52.7 | 54.1 | 81.2% |
| Passing yards, QB | 2022 to 2025 | 2,173 | 221.1 | 223.7 | 81.2% |
| Receiving yards, TE | 2021 to 2025 | 1,179 | 47.6 | 46.7 | 82.1% |
Questions about the Bears
How often do Bears games go over 45.5 points?
In 162 of 439 games since 2000 (37%). Every total from 30.5 to 50.5 is counted in the total section of this page.
How often do the Bears win at home?
They have won 119 of 224 home games since 2000 (53%), and 87 of 215 away.
How often do the Bears score more than 20.5 points?
In 208 of 439 games since 2000 (47%).
Are the numbers on this page predictions?
No. They are results from games already played, and each section says which games it counts.
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