NFL same game parlays: the numbers behind each leg
The numbers behind NFL same game parlays
Every leg you add lowers your chance of winning. Since 2000, 3018 of 6839 NFL games went over 45.5 points, and 3610 were decided by more than 7.5.
The legs, across the league
This season, through week 8
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 30.5 points | 88%106 of 120 | 83%5675 of 6839 |
| Over 42.5 points | 54%65 of 120 | 54%3688 of 6839 |
| Over 45.5 points | 48%58 of 120 | 44%3018 of 6839 |
| Over 48.5 points | 41%49 of 120 | 36%2469 of 6839 |
| Over 50.5 points | 38%46 of 120 | 32%2180 of 6839 |
| Decided by more than 3.5 | 78%93 of 120 | 77%5235 of 6839 |
| Decided by more than 7.5 | 46%55 of 120 | 53%3610 of 6839 |
| Decided by more than 10.5 | 37%44 of 120 | 42%2864 of 6839 |
| Decided by more than 14.5 | 27%32 of 120 | 30%2076 of 6839 |
Every team, games over 45.5
All 32 teams. Each links to its own page, where every line is counted.
| Bills | 86%6 of 7 | 42%188 of 443 |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 75%6 of 8 | 50%222 of 443 |
| Raiders | 75%6 of 8 | 46%200 of 438 |
| Lions | 71%5 of 7 | 53%230 of 435 |
| Giants | 71%5 of 7 | 43%190 of 446 |
| Bengals | 71%5 of 7 | 41%182 of 441 |
| Colts | 63%5 of 8 | 52%238 of 456 |
| Cardinals | 63%5 of 8 | 47%207 of 439 |
| Falcons | 63%5 of 8 | 45%200 of 443 |
| Ravens | 63%5 of 8 | 38%175 of 461 |
| Saints | 57%4 of 7 | 54%241 of 447 |
| 49ers | 57%4 of 7 | 46%209 of 453 |
| Texans | 57%4 of 7 | 42%173 of 412 |
| Panthers | 57%4 of 7 | 42%186 of 444 |
| Commanders | 57%4 of 7 | 42%183 of 437 |
| Chiefs | 43%3 of 7 | 46%212 of 457 |
| Seahawks | 43%3 of 7 | 46%210 of 459 |
| Dolphins | 43%3 of 7 | 37%163 of 435 |
| Bears | 43%3 of 7 | 37%162 of 439 |
| Packers | 38%3 of 8 | 54%251 of 462 |
| Rams | 38%3 of 8 | 48%219 of 452 |
| Patriots | 38%3 of 8 | 47%225 of 475 |
| Broncos | 38%3 of 8 | 45%203 of 447 |
| Titans | 38%3 of 8 | 43%190 of 443 |
| Jets | 38%3 of 8 | 36%160 of 441 |
| Steelers | 38%3 of 8 | 35%161 of 459 |
| Jaguars | 29%2 of 7 | 40%174 of 437 |
| Eagles | 25%2 of 8 | 45%211 of 465 |
| Buccaneers | 25%2 of 8 | 43%193 of 446 |
| Browns | 25%2 of 8 | 35%152 of 433 |
| Chargers | 14%1 of 7 | 47%209 of 443 |
| Vikings | 14%1 of 7 | 46%205 of 443 |
How the model has done here
Each row is a confidence band: what the model said on average, and in how many finished games it happened.
| Confidence | Model said | Happened |
|---|---|---|
| 50-60% | 55% | 55%1035 of 1880 |
| 60-70% | 65% | 65%1039 of 1603 |
| 70-80% | 74% | 74%807 of 1086 |
| 80-90% | 84% | 82%345 of 421 |
Questions
Why does each leg lower the chance of winning?
A parlay wins only if every leg wins. Two legs that each land 56% of the time land together far less often, and the payout grows while the chance shrinks.
Why are same game parlay legs linked?
Because they come from the same game. A high total and a big favourite covering tend to happen together, so the chance of both is not the two chances multiplied.
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